After crisis, emerging economies set to drive world growth

13:56, September 16, 2010      

Email | Print | Subscribe | Comments | Forum 

Emerging economies have recovered faster from the crisis than developed countries and are set to become the main engine of growth for the world, leading economists and Chinese officials said today in a panel addressing the outlook for the global economy at the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2010 in Tianjin, China.

Gerard Lyons, chief economist and group head of global research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the recovery in global growth has been led by emerging economies.

"It is a tale of two worlds," he said, pointing to stagnation in the West versus strong growth in the East.

This is not necessarily a disaster, noted Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

"Japan has showed us that sluggish growth doesn't have to mean a deteriorating quality of life," he said.

Paul Sheard, global chief economist and global head of economic research, Nomura Securities International, agreed.

"By 2012, the emerging markets will contribute three-quarters of global growth – with China contributing roughly one-third," he said. On the other hand, "the crisis will cast a long shadow over the developed world."

China's government responded rapidly to the crisis of 2008, taking the lead in achieving economic recovery, said Ma Jiantang, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. China's GDP growth rate rose far more than expected, from more than 6 percent in early 2009 to nearly 12 percent in 2010. Measures have since been taken to address rapid credit growth and fears of overheating.

"I am not worried about the speed of the economic recovery," he added. "China is looking to achieve 10 percent growth in 2010, with CPI [growth at] less than 3 percent."

Xia Bin, director-general of China's Financial Research Institute and Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC), stressed that growth expectations need to be moderately adjusted downwards to ensure growth is sustainable:

"China cannot enjoy the same double-digit growth rates of 2003 to 2007," Xia said.

In summarizing the session, Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, outlined a two-speed world where the developed economies recover slowly versus rapid growth in the emerging economies. However, he cautioned, "one thing we can be certain of is that there will be surprises. Expect the unexpected."

The Annual Meeting of the New Champions, the "Summer Davos," is the foremost global business gathering in Asia. Introduced in 2007, the meeting is hosted in partnership with the government of the People's Republic of China, which is represented by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). More than 1,500 participants from 85 countries will participate in the Tianjin conference from Sept. 13 to Sept. 15.

A select group of business leaders from the World Economic Forum's Members who have extensive international experience in building global businesses will act as mentors at the meeting. They are: Hari S. Bhartia, co-chairman and managing director, Jubilant Bhartia Group, India; president, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII); Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, chairman of the board, Nestlé, Switzerland; member of the foundation board of the World Economic Forum; Cynthia Carroll, chief executive, Anglo American, United Kingdom; Eckhard Cordes, chairman of the management board and chief executive officer, METRO GROUP, Germany; Kris Gopalakrishnan, chief executive officer and managing director, Infosys Technologies, India; Jack Ma Yun, chairman and chief executive officer, Alibaba Group, People's Republic of China; James E. Rogers, chairman, president and chief executive officer, Duke Energy Corporation, USA; John S. Watson, chairman of the board and chief executive officer, Chevron Corporation.

By Fon Mathuros, World Economic Forum

(Editor:张心意)

  • Do you have anything to say?

双语词典
dictionary

  
Special Coverage
  • Premier Wen Jiabao visits Hungary, Britain, Germany
  • From drought to floods
Major headlines
Editor's Pick
  • Photo taken on Sept. 29, 2011 shows a cargo ship in danger on the sea near Zhuhai City, south China's Guangdong Province. Cargo ship Fangzhou 6 of Qingzhou of southwest China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region lost control after water stormed into its cabin due to Typhoon Nesat on the sea near Zhuhai Thursday, leaving 12 crew members in danger. Rescuers rushed to the ship and saved them by using a helicopter. (Xinhua)
  • Actress Gong Li poses for L'Officiel Magazine. (Xinhua Photo)
  • Demonstrators from the Occupy Wall Street campaign hold placards as they march in the financial district of New York September 29, 2011. After hundreds of protesters were denied access to some areas outside the New York Stock Exchange on September 17, demonstrators set up a rag-tag camp three blocks away. Zuccotti Park is a campground festooned with placards and anti-Wall Street slogans. The group is adding complaints of excessive police force against protesters and police treatment of ethnic minorities and Muslims to its grievances list, which includes bank bailouts, foreclosures and high unemployment. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
  • The romantic myth of the Aegean 
The Aegean Sea is between the Greece Peninsula and Asia Minor Peninsula, dotted with many beautiful scenery islands, like a paradise on earth.  The ancient city of Troy in the east coast of Aegean, Turkey, and Mycenaean sites in the west bank of Greece, which have been archaeological discoveries, now are the must visit places in journey of the Aegean Sea. Above, these desolate dilapidated stone, the sunny blue sky and white clouds and vessels roaming at sea, arriving and departing travellers, add more romantic to the sea and the islands.
  • Chinese Permanent Representative to the United Nations Li Baodong (R) welcomes UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in New York, the United States. Sept. 29, 2011. The Chinese permanent delegation to the UN held a reception on Thursday to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and the 40th anniversary of China's returning to the UN. (Xinhua/Shen Hong)
  • Chinese ambassador to Bulgaria Guo Yezhou delivers a speech during the reception in Sofia, capital of Bulgaria, on Sept. 29, 2011. The Chinese Embassy in Bulgaria held a grand reception here on Thursday to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. (Xinhua/Wang Meng)
Hot Forum Discussion