The world military situation:a nature of non-zero-sum game in 2010

15:15, January 28, 2010      

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As proved repeatedly by the history, the evolution of the security situation is never a straight line. In reality, it will continue to be characterized by a sort of balance achieved after interaction and repeated fighting between the old logic and the new reality.

Positive changes already emerged in the solution of a couple of hot issues including the DPRK nuclear issue and Iran's nuclear issue. If breakthroughs can be further made, the global and regional security will see new hope in 2010.

Meanwhile, local turbulences are likely to increase in 2010. The repeated breakout of some hot issues will impact the international situation.

Hot issue
Interweaving of traditional and non-traditional security threats

Which hot regions or fields may see military conflict or war in 2010?

In the recent years, armed conflicts have frequently appeared in Central Asia, Transcaucasia, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. The incentives of the conflicts include territorial disputes, tribal conflicts, ethnic and religious confrontation, armed insurgent and terrorist attacks.

These incentives are rooted in the deep-seated contradictions in international politics. Resulting from the shortcomings of the current international system, they can not be eliminated in the short term. Therefore, in 2010, the military conflicts will continue to concentrate in the areas mentioned above.

Among them, special attention should be paid to the Middle East, South Asia and Transcaucasia. Traditional and non-traditional security threats are deeply interwoven in these areas. Terrorist forces have solid foundations there. If not properly prevented, they will produce huge impacts on the international security. Given the follow-up effects of the international financial crisis and the massive increase in poverty-stricken population, the situation is not optimistic.

Arms control
Reduction and research go side by side

What new contents and new developments will the arms control and disarmament have? Will Russia and the Untied States reach a new treaty on strategic offensive arms reduction?

Arms control and disarmament have a profound impact on relations between big powers and the international strategic pattern. To promote the arms control and disarmament process becomes an important cornerstone of the world security and stability.

Nevertheless, military power still exists. There is still some country trampling on the norms of international relations with its military superiority. This practice has forced a couple of countries to regard possession of nuclear weapons as a strategic pillar of safeguarding the national security and supporting the international status. As a result, the arms control and disarmament still face huge challenges.
International strategy
Balance and game of power appear in turns

In 2010, what new contents will the military affairs and national defense policies include? What new developments will the international military theories and the national defense guidelines have? And how will the defense budget go?

Despite the impacts of the international financial crisis and the economic recession, the adjustment of military strategy and updating of military theories will not slow down. Thank to the changes in balance of power caused by the crisis, the evolution of the international pattern will accelerate. The major powers will compete fiercely to achieve strategic balance and to gain an advantage.

Equal emphasis on the main battlefield and the secondary battlefield

Will the wars on terror get a satisfactory result in 2010?

The Taliban launched a series of attacks on the Afghan presidential palace and a number of government departments on January 18, 2010. It seemed to indicate the security situation in Afghanistan will further deteriorate.

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq become a heavy shadow, along with which the Americans enter the first 10 years of the new century.

Obama has been seeking changes after taking office. He promulgated a new anti-terrorism strategy. While declaring to withdraw troops from Iraq, he strengthened military operations against terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

But analyzing from the current situation, it is difficult for this new anti-terrorism strategy to get significant results.

By People's Daily Online
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