CASS: China's GDP growth expected to top 10% in 2011

14:04, December 07, 2010      

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China will continue to record stable and rapid growth in 2011, and the growth rate is expected to top 10 percent, according to the Chinese Economy Blue Book 2011 released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS.)

The blue book said that China's GDP growth for 2010 will be around 9.9 percent. Factors affecting the country's economic situation will not change significantly.

The basic drivers of domestic growth, world economic environment and the intensity of macro control policies are regarded as the major factors influencing China's economic growth, said the blue book.

Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the development mode driven by domestic demand has been consolidated, but its reliance on investment has become more clear. Expansionary policies since 2008 have strengthened the domination role of domestic capital, with private funds warmed up.

The difficulties in global recovery have added to the uncertainties in the rebound of China's foreign trade sectors. Earlier this year, the World Bank expected that global economic growth for 2010 and 2011 will be 2.7 percent and 3.2 percent respectively, but recently claimed that world economic growth in 2011 won't exceed 2010 levels.

Macro control policies are also believed to have negative impact on economic growth. As investment in the real estate sector accounts for around 20 percent of China's overall urban fixed asset investment, the central government's tightening measures toward the property market will put pressure on China's economy.

Meanwhile, expanding loans to local governments' financing platform companies caused increasing repayment risks. The paces of fixed asset investment will slowdown with the regulation on these platform companies.

The blue book predicted that China's economy will still maintain a structure dominated by investment and supported by consumption in the short term. Outbound impact and the intensity of macro control measures will be major sources of fluctuations.

By People's Daily Online


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