Panel discusses roadblocks on China's path to economic recovery (2)

13:49, August 10, 2010      

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Wang Jun: The slowing global economic recovery will produce certain effects on China's foreign trade. According to China’s Economic Sentiment Indicator, China's leading export indicators continued to rise sharply in the first half, indicating that China's foreign trade may still maintain strong momentum for recovery in the third quarter.

However, due to the growing influence of the RMB exchange rate reform, industrial restructuring, the adjustments to the export tax rebate policy and the European debt crisis, China's exports will grow much more slowly in the second half. Meanwhile, China's export growth rate may plummet in the fourth quarter and even fall to single digits at the end of 2010.

Zhang: The slowing of the global economic recovery will affect China’s price trend. No matter if its China's CPI or PPI or the fixed price index of capital goods released by the National Bureau of Statistics, they all have a high correlation with international factors. Therefore, under the influence of international factors, China’s pressure of raising prices in the second half of 2010 will decrease to an extent.

Macro-control faces many "dilemmas"

Question: What kind of difficulties does China have in macro-control?

Zheng: In the first half of 2010, China's national economy entered the steadily and fairly rapid growth phase from the rebounding phase, and the economic operation fully met the requirements of macro-control policies, signifying it is correct to adhere to the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy that were decided early in 2010. According to the development tendency in the first half of 2010, GDP is expected to keep a growth rate of about 10 percent throughout the year and show a good situation of high growth, low inflation and high efficiency.

Wang Jun: China's economy faces a number of dilemmas in 2010. We analyzed the dilemmas"in five aspects.

First, China's economy faces the dilemma between sustaining economic growth, adjusting economic structure, and controlling inflation. Second, there is a dilemma between government investments and the heavy chemical industry-driven economic recovery and structural adjustment, and changing the development mode.

Third, there is a dilemma between real estate regulations and control and economic growth. Fourth, there is a dilemma between abolishing the economic stimulus policy and avoiding the abortion of economic recovery. Fifth, there is also a dilemma between the adjustment of the exchange rate policy and the adjustment of economic structure.

【1】 【2】 【3】 【4】


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