China's fast growth to last decades

08:24, July 30, 2010      

Email | Print | Subscribe | Comments | Forum 

China's economy should stay on its rapid growth path over the next two or three decades as long as the pace of growth stays at a steady 8 percent a year, former central bank adviser Fan Gang was quoted as saying Wednesday.

"China's economy is likely to continue growing rapidly over the next 20 to 30 years if the pace of growth stays at 8 percent and with 8 million of new jogs every year," the Security Times cited Fan Gang, director of China's National Economic Research Institute.

The country's GDP grew by 11.1 percent in the first half of the year, while the figure for the second quarter of this year was 10.3 percent.

China has maintained rapid economic growth of over 8 percent for 10 years, starting with the 8.4 percent in 2000. The high was 14 percent in 2007, and China reached a surprising 9 percent amid the global financial crisis in 2008, according to data from the NBS.

Fan attributed the future high economic growth to high residents' saving, continued foreign investment, relatively low labor costs, and scientific and technical innovations.

"I think China will maintain economic growth between 8 and 9 percent for the next decade," said HSBC's analyst Sun Junwei. "The country's future economic growth will be driven by massive domestic consumptions and urbanization."

But Sun warned that the long-time rapid growth will bring with it problems, including the waste of natural resources and environmental degra-dation, signs of which have been apparent for years.

"China should maintain a continuous economic development and improve its social security system in order to spur domestic spending," said Sun.

Fan also estimated that China won't reach the so-called Lewis turning point, where developing countries' wages begin to rise quickly when surplus labor supply from the countryside tapers off, for the next 10 to 15 years. Workers from rural areas still account for 30 percent of the labor market and China's labor cost will continue to be relatively low compared to other countries, he said.

By Li Woke

Source: Global Times


  • Do you have anything to say?


Special Coverage
  • Premier Wen Jiabao visits Hungary, Britain, Germany
  • From drought to floods
Major headlines
Editor's Pick
  • Staff members watch a screen showing the blast-off of the Long March-2FT1 carrier rocket loaded with Tiangong-1 unmanned space lab module at Beijing Aerospace Control Center, Sept. 29, 2011. Commander-in-chief of China's manned space program Chang Wanquan announced Thursday night that the launch of Tiangong-1 space lab module was successful. (Xinhua/Wang Shen)
  • Chinese President Hu Jintao watches the launch of Tiangong-1 space lab module at Beijing Aerospace Control Center in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 29, 2011. Other members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, including Wu Bangguo, Jia Qinglin, Li Changchun, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang and Zhou Yongkang, are also present. (Xinhua/Rao Aimin)
  • The graphics shows the launch procedures of the carrier rocket of Tiangong-1 space lab module, Long March-2FT1 on Sept. 29, 2011. (Xinhua/Lu Zhe)
  • Image taken from Beijing Aerospace Control Center shows a Long March-2FT1 carrier rocket loaded with Tiangong-1 unmanned space lab module blasting off from the launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gansu Province, Sept. 29, 2011. (Xinhua)
  • On Sept. 28, tourists travel around the Mingshashan Scenic Area in Dunhuang, Gansu province by camel. With the National Day vacation right around the corner, more and more tourists from home and abroad are going to Dunhuang. Riding on a camel, they travel in the desert to enjoy the cities rare form of natural scenery. (Xinhua/Zhang Weixian)
  • Chinese forest armed forces work together with forest firefighters on Sept. 28. (Xinhua/Chai Liren)
Hot Forum Discussion