1st quarter GDP growth rate estimated at 11.4%

13:46, March 01, 2010      

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China's first-quarter GDP growth rate is expected to reach 11.4 percent according to the Langrun Forecast issued February 27 by 22 institutions including the National School of Development under Peking University, the Department of Economic Forecasting of the State Information Center, Essence Securities and ICBC.

The 22 institutions have respectively produced forecast data on the first-quarter GDP growth rate, with a weighted average growth rate of 11.4 percent. Of them, Blue Oak Capital estimated the highest growth rate of 13.5 percent, while the Unirule Institute of Economics estimating the lowest growth rate of 9.5 percent.

Furthermore, according to the forecast data from the 22 institutions, the first-quarter CPI is expected to increase by 2.4 percent, industrial added value by 19.7 percent, total investments in fixed assets by 28 percent, and gross retail sales of consumer goods by 18.2 percent. Both imports and exports will surge in the first quarter, with exports expected to be up by 25.2 percent and imports expected to be up as high as 47.5 percent.

According to the Langrun Forecast, China's economy has once again begun to develop rapidly and inflation may occur.

Song Guoqing, a professor from Peking University's National School of Development, said that signs of low inflation have presently emerged. However, it has faded away compared with November and December of last year. CPI rose sharply month-on-month in December 2009, dropped to a certain degree in January 2010, and basically remained unchanged in February 2010. Generally speaking, chances for inflation caused by excessive demand are slim, as the impact caused by credit expansion in 2009 on the CPI has been fully released.

The National Bureau of Statistics released relevant macroeconomic data for February 11, 2010. The data shows that China's GDP reached 33.53 trillion yuan in 2009, up 8.7 percent year-on-year if relevant calculations are based on comparable prices, with the growth rate dropping by 0.9 percentage points from the previous year.

By People's Daily Online
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