China's trade surplus expected to drop $100 bln in 2010

In 2010, China's trade surplus may dip another 100 billion U.S. dollars following a 34 percent decrease last year, said Yao Jian, spokesman of China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) Wednesday.

In the first quarter of 2010, China's exports grew almost 29 percent year-on-year to 316.17 billion U.S. dollars, while imports surged nearly 65 percent to 301.7 billion U.S. dollars. The trade surplus in the first three months was 14.5 billion U.S. dollars, around 77 percent lower than that of the first quarter of 2009.

China's trade surplus dropped by around 100 billion U.S. dollars in 2009. If the figure decreases by another 50 percent in 2010, it will be 100 billion U.S. dollars lower than that of 2009, Yao said.

"China's 2010 target is to assure overseas markets while seeking a more balanced trade structure," he said.

The country's trade surplus peaked in 2008. The Chinese government implemented policies to balance China's trade structure in the period from 2007 to 2008.

"The March trade deficit was a result of those policies," Yao said.

He noted that robust domestic demand boosted China's imports.

"Trade deficit in March reveals that the outbound environment is still cold while the domestic market is warming up. For this reason, a monthly trade deficit will likely continue in the first half of 2010."

The March deficit is also believed to be a sign of improvement for China's balance of payments.

"In 2009, the current account surplus accounted for around 5.8 percent of China's GDP. The ratio is likely to fall to 3 or 4 percent in 2010," Yao said. The critical point is said to be 5 percent.

However, Yao also emphasized the importance of the stability and continuity of favorable policies to boost exports while the unemployment rate in other major economies remains high and consumers' demand is still sluggish.

By People's Daily Online