U.S. stocks to climb wall of worry in 2011 (2)

14:27, January 01, 2011      

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A specialist trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on the last trading day of the year in New York December 31, 2010. (Xinhua/Reuters)

What's more, the extension of Bush tax cuts is expected to provide further stimulus to the economy.

"The tax cuts extension put more money in people's pockets, which will boost spending and may create a million jobs. That helps the economy," Alan Valdes, a senior trader of New York Stock Exchange, told Xinhua.

However, all these measures will wear off, he added, and there are still problems that could hold the growth back.

"The market will continue to rise in the first six months, that's for sure. But things could be a little tricky in the summer," Valdes said.

Theodore Weisberg, a veteran trader with more than 40 years of experiences in Wall Street, also admitted that investors will still see all the challenges they have been dealing with in 2010.

First,the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high despite the pace of lay-offs was slowing. Most economists agree that the economy will need to grow by at least 5 percent to lower the unemployment rate by a full percentage point. Even if the economy grows at 4 percent, as some of the most optimistic analysts are expecting, the jobless rate is not expected to fall below 9 percent.

Second,European debt crisis is still going to haunt the market in the new year as many euro zone countries were faced with both short- and long- term challenges.

According to UniCredito Italiano, euro zone countries will have to raise 560 billion euros (744.8 billion dollars) in 2011 to finance their debt, which is the highest since the birth of the euro. Portugal alone will need 20 billion euros (26.6 billion dollars) in the first half of 2011.

At the same time, many also doubt if the economic recovery can be self-sustaining after all the stimulus measures wear off.

"Many people are raising their guidance, but I'm not doing that." Valdes said, "I'm still gonna watch."

Weisberg sounds much more bullish, citing the stock market is a forward-looking indicator. "I think the message that is sending is that in spite of all the bad economic news, the U.S. is slowly coming out of economic doldrums."

"It's not gonna be a straight line, and there is gonna be a lot of volatility. This time next year if we have the same conversation, I simply think we'll say once again the market continue to climb that wall of worry. I don't know what kind of gain we can expect, but the overall tone for the year is positive," Weisberg said.

Source: Xinhua


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