US exports gain as dollar stays weakened

08:26, December 06, 2010      

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The US trade deficit was probably little changed in October, reflecting a rise in exports as the dollar weakened and economies overseas led the global recovery, analysts said before a report this week.

The gap held at $44 billion for a second month, according to the median of 60 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures released on Dec 10. Other reports may show consumer confidence climbed this month and the cost of imported goods rose at a slower pace in November.

Importers in China, Brazil and Singapore are among the top 10 buyers of American-made goods this year as their economies grew in excess of 8 percent, almost three times as much as the US, benefiting companies such as General Dynamics Corp. The gains in exports are offsetting increasing US purchases abroad as the world's largest economy recovers.

"Exports will rebound because of strong growth overseas and the weaker dollar," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc in New York. "We can expect imports to increase as domestic demand improves. The trade balance is likely to be stable in coming months, which would still be a pretty good outcome during an expansion."

Along with export-driven growth at factories, the economy is getting help from increases in consumer spending, which may keep rising as Americans gain confidence.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary household sentiment index rose to 72.5 this month, the highest level since June, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The gauge averaged 89 in the five years leading up to the recession that began in December 2007. The report is also due Dec 10.

One reason confidence remains below pre-slump levels is the lack of job growth. Payrolls grew by 39,000 in November, less than the most pessimistic forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, Labor Department figures showed on Dec 3. The jobless rate climbed to 9.8 percent, underscoring the Federal Reserve's decision to pump more money into the financial system.

Source:China Daily


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