OPEC predicts slight rise in oil demand for 2011-2012

09:09, July 13, 2011      

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In a monthly report published here on Tuesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expected a slight growth in global oil demand in 2011 and 2012 due to the uncertainties in global economy recovery.

According to the OPEC forecast, the average daily global oil demand in 2011 would rise by 1.36 million to 88.18 million barrels, and in 2012 by 1.32 million to 89.50 million barrels.

In the OECD countries, OPEC expected a slight decline in oil demand of around half a percent for both 2011 and 2012.

A strong growth of more than 2 percent in oil demand were expected for most of areas of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East in 2011 and 2012, said the report.

The report also expected a growth in the demand for OPEC crude oil, which would increase by 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 30.0 mb/d in 2011 and by 0.3 mb/d to 30.3 mb/d in 2012.

The OPEC Reference Basket remained volatile in June, moving within a wide range of 102 to 114 dollars per barrel. In monthly terms, the Basket fell for the second consecutive month to average 109.04 dollars per barrel, a slight drop of 0.9 dollar from the previous month.

Futures prices also declined as macroeconomic sentiment weakened across many regions. The U.S. payroll figures in June this year reached the lowest level since September 2010. As the world's largest oil consumer, its high nonfarm unemployment rate means a low use in oil demand.

Because of the high U.S. nonfarm unemployment rate, as well as other uncertain factors of the global economy, OPEC oil price will remain fluctuating for a period of time in future.

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