IEA foresees increasing oil demand through 2016

09:55, June 17, 2011      

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Global oil consumption will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday.

Assuming the crude oil price at 103 U.S. dollars a barrel, the IEA estimated that growth in oil supply capacity through 2016 can average 1.1 million barrels per day, the Paris-based organization said in its Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2011 report.

"Conventional crude oil accounts for less than 40 percent of the increase, while for natural gas liquids, biofuels and unconventional oil from onshore, the United States account for the lion's share of new supplies," the report said.

As higher oil prices are double-edged to economic recovery, the IEA called for more supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to ease the already tight market and set out two scenarios to illustrate the change of global oil demand in the next six years.

Under a base-case scenario, the report said global oil demand might reach 95.3 million barrels per day in 2016, and if the oil-producing countries can produce smoothly without accidental interruption, "increasing oil supply could match oil demand growth with spare capacities maintained near current levels."

However, if the growth of world economy is slowed down by price pressure, global oil demand is projected at 92.9 million barrels per day by 2016.

In both demand scenarios, Asia and the Middle East together generate around 95 percent of net growth, with major increases expected from the transport and petrochemical sectors, mainly because of end-user subsidies and buoyant economic growth, the IEA said.

In a separate report released also on Thursday, the agency estimated that global oil demand at 88.0 million barrrels per day in 2010, 2.8 million barrels per day more than a year before, and 89.3 million barrels per day in 2011, up by 1.3 million barrels per day, mainly driven by robust demand in China and India.

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