Hungarian polls predict landslide victory for Fidesz party in Sunday elections

11:06, April 09, 2010      

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Three Hungarian polls predicted a landslide victory for the center-right Fidesz party, which might even walk away with a two-thirds majority in Sunday's parliamentary elections.

The polls were conducted over the past several weeks and reported on Thursday.

Gallup saw Fidesz would win a two-thirds majority and far right Jobbik would beat the left wing Socialists for second place. The representative survey, conducted on March 26-30 on a sample of 1, 016 eligible voters, also gave the newly established left-leaning LMP a chance of making it over the five percent threshold needed to garner any seats in parliament.

Gallup predicted that 58 percent of eligible voters would go to the polls on Sunday for the first round of elections and that Fidesz would get 59 percent of that vote. Jobbik, said Gallup, would get 17 percent, the Socialists 16 percent, and LMP possibly five percent. The Democratic Forum, said Gallup, would get 3 percent and would not make it into parliament at all.

At the same time, the Gallup analysis warned, the final days of the campaign could significantly alter preferences. Given that 22 per cent of voters declined to reveal their choices, all parties are committed to mobilizing as many potential voters as possible.

Forsense predicted that 60 percent of voters would go to the polls and that Fidesz would get 60 percent of the vote. It reported that 25 percent of voters were still undecided or unwilling to share their choices, and agreed with Gallup regarding the uncertainty of predictions. However it gave the Socialists 19 percent of the vote and Jobbik only 12 percent. Forsense gave LMP 6 percent, a number that would definitely put it into parliament. It gave the Democratic Forum 2 per cent, not enough to make it. Forsense queried 1,000 randomly selected eligible voters between March 19 and April 2.

Tarki also predicted a landslide victory for Fidesz, with 56-60 percent of the vote, followed by the Socialists with 18-20 percent. Jobbik, it said, could count on 10-12 percent and LMP on 6-8 percent. Tarki agreed that the Democratic Forum would not be able to make it over the 5 percent threshold. The Tarki poll was conducted among 1,000 eligible voters at the end of March.

On Wednesday the "Point of View" Institute predicted that Fidesz would garner 284 of the 386 seats in parliament, while the Socialists would get 50, Jobbik 37 and LMP 15. The "Republikon" Institute estimated that Fidesz would get 267, the Socialists 62, Jobbik 47 and LMP 10.

Source: Xinhua


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