News Analysis: Experts divided on possible economic impact of Japan's catastrophic quake (2)

08:34, March 14, 2011      

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LOOMING STAGNATION RISK

Japan's economy rebounded strongly in 2010, with its real GDP growing by 3.9 percent, the fastest growth in two decades.

However, after gathering strength in the first quarter, the country's economic recovery began to lose steam in the following three quarters of 2010.

Many economists and analysts had predicted that Japan's economy will regain momentum in the first quarter of this year.

But now, they said the impact of the massive earth quake might affect the country's course of recovery.

Factory closures, a nation-wide power shortage and weak consumer confidence are likely to deal a serious blow to Japan's economy in the short term at least.

Therefore, Wolfgang Leim, an expert on Japan with Commerzbank, predicted that Japan's economy might contract slightly in the first quarter of this year.

Gerard Lyons, Standard Chartered Chief Economist, also warned that Japan's economy still faces the short-term risk of stagnation.


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