Senior analysts predict Labor to win Australian election in narrow lead

16:33, August 20, 2010      

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Just one day out from the Australian election, political analysts on Friday suggested Labor Party could hang on to power by a thread in the tightest election race in years.

The Labor government currently holds 83 seats, while Opposition leader Tony Abbott's Liberal/National coalition has 63. There are four independents, and a party needs 76 seats to win the Aug. 21 election.

For Opposition leader Tony Abbott to defeat Prime Minister Julia Gillard and become prime minister, the Liberals and Nationals must win 17 seats from Labor to be absolutely certain of government in their own right.

In return, for Gillard to become the shortest-lived prime minister to be defeated at an election, Labor only has to lose 13 seats.

The latest poll obtained by the Sydney Morning Herald on Thursday showed Labor clinging to a four seat majority, though it stands to lose key seats in some areas, including Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia.

As Australian Labor Party has locked in a tight race with its main opposition, in no better position than when former prime minister Kevin Rudd was ousted by Gillard, leading political experts have shaded the same views as the poll results declaring the Labor should win Saturday's election in a narrow lead.

"The election is very difficult to predict, but Labor probably is more likely to win," Greg Craven, professor of law, also vice- chancellor at the Australian Catholic University told Xinhua in an exclusive interview on Friday.

Source: Xinhua

(Editor:张茜)

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