Pakistan to become 4th largest nation by 2050: survey

21:00, June 28, 2010      

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Pakistan will become fourth largest nation on earth in terms of population by 2050, local media reported on Monday.

Pakistan will have a total population of 210.1 million in 2020, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2009-10.

Pakistan is the sixth largest populous country in the world, with an estimated population of 169.9 million at the end of June 2009.

The survey showed that Pakistan, also a "young" country, has approximately 104 million people below 30 years old.

The proportion of population residing in cities has risen to 36 percent which is seven times higher than that in 1950 just after its foundation in August 1947.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of the country began declining rapidly in the decade of 1991-2000, falling from 6.3 to 4.8, and the subsequent decade 2000-2009 has seen a slowing of the fertility transition with a fall from 4.8 to about 4.0.

The draft population policy 2009-10 foresees to reduce fertility level from 3.56 (2009) to 3.1 births per woman by the year 2015. To achieve this, Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) has to increase from 30 to 60 percent by 2030. Lately the rise in CPR was from 12 percent in 1991 to 28 percent in 1998, an average of 2 percent a year, the rise from 1998 until 2004 is from 28 percent to 33 percent.

Pakistan is also experiencing a dwindling dependency ratio. Reduced dependency ratios mean that the proportion of the population in working ages (15-64) continues to increase while those in the younger ages (0-14) decrease.

The proportion of the elderly in the total population is projected to show a substantial increase after 2025.

According to the survey, life expectancy in the country is estimated at 64.1. Taking five-year period of 2010-15 and 2025-30, it is predicted by the United Nations that life expectancy in Pakistan would increase from 68 to 71.9. The population growth rate would decrease to 1.52 percent and total fertility rate to 2. 70.

The Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Crude Death Rate (CDR) and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) are projected under this scenario to decline to 21.4, 5.6 and 42.2 percent respectively.



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