What is global significance of Chinese economic trend?

22:10, December 16, 2010      

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Where is the Chinese economy going? In the era of globalization, this is a question for China, and also something for the world to consider.

The just-ended Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing attracted worldwide media attention with the BBC describing it as a meeting of great importance.

Indeed, against the backdrop of the deep interaction between the Chinese economy and the global economy, China's economic trend will undoubtedly affect the world.

The Central Economic Work Conference conveyed the message that the international financial crisis is not over yet, that China will face the challenges and share the opportunities together with the world in the coming 2011.

CHINESE JUDGMENT

India's Economic Times noted that the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out the world economy is expected to continue to grow next year, but there are still many unstable and uncertain factors.

This is China's basic judgment for the world economic situation in 2011, and is also the most likely development path for the world economy next year.

The world economic situation is very complex for the past three years since the outbreak of U.S. sub-prime crisis in the summer of 2007. In the autumn of 2008, after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the world economy plunged into the worst downturn since the end of World War II.

In face of the critical situation, China and the international community helped each other overcome the difficulties in the framework of the Group of 20 by strengthening macroeconomic policy coordination and other measures. From the second quarter of 2009, the world economy gradually began a slow and long-term recovery.

From the second quarter of 2010, with the effect of stimulus policy by developed economies gradually diminishing and the private sector not successfully receiving the "relay baton" to drive the economy, the economic recovery for developed economies slowed down. And the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has added new uncertainties for the prospect of a world economic recovery.

Currently, the world economic recovery has been uneven. It is generally good for emerging and developing economies, while the developed economies are facing more problems such as high unemployment rates, weak recovery for key industries like real estate and banking, high government deficits, and public debt.

It is worth pointing out that although strengthening international financial regulations and improving global economic governance has become an international consensus since the breakout of the financial crisis,progress has been slow.

The underlying institutional and mechanism reasons causing the international financial crisis have not yet been eliminated.

Meanwhile, the U.S., the Eurozone and Japan are all facing problems of soaring government deficits and public debt. In particular, the risk of sovereign debt crisis in Eurozone has not been eliminated. In addition, the lingering shadow of protectionism and the ultra-low benchmark interest rates and quantitative easing monetary policies of Western countries could trigger problems like a new "hot money" speculation, asset bubbles and inflation pressure.

Looking forward to 2011, the world economic recovery is set not to be smooth. With a variety of uncertainties, only China and the international community strengthen cooperation and solidarity can the whole world rid itself the adverse effects of the global financial crisis as soon as possible and promote the sustained recovery for world economy. This is China's judgment, and also the consensus of the international community.


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