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Outlook 2009: Six challenges for China's economic development
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17:19, December 22, 2008

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According to the China Securities Journal, 2008 is an extraordinary year. To address the challenges of various adverse factors at home and abroad, three major adjustments were made in the macroeconomic policies of China, which have basically maintained the steady and healthy operation of the national economy. Now with 2008 coming to an end, what will the situation be like next year? The recently concluded Central Economic Working Conference set the economic keynote for 2009 as "maintaining growth, boosting domestic demands and adjusting the economic structure." Therefore, we can make a clear-cut judgment on the economic situation of China for 2009.

Firstly, the proliferation and spreading of the international financial crisis will further increase its influence on China with the economic growth of China obviously slowing down.

Secondly, the pressure of domestic inflation and deflation next year may alternate repeatedly. Due to the combined influence of various adverse factors at home and abroad, the macroeconomic regulation in China might face a more complicated situation in 2009.

Thirdly, the stock market and real estate market in China will continue to fluctuate and the possibility of real estate prices dropping will be very high.

Fourthly, the living conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises will further deteriorate.

Fifthly, the employment situation will be most discouraging since the reform and opening-up began.

And finally, the difficulty of maintaining a balanced financial revenue and expenditure situation in China will be huge in 2009.

In summary, the overall economic situation in China for 2009 will not be optimistic. In order to realize the goals of "maintaining growth, boosting domestic demands and adjusting economic structure," when measures to expand consumption do not take instant effect, the central government's macroeconomic policies will undoubtedly be implemented according to the "proactive and prudent" principles of "a proactive fiscal policy plus a prudent monetary policy," which will focus on expanding domestic demands, especially consumption demands, and increase the guarantee and living allowances of the low-income and poverty-stricken groups so as to stabilize the economy and social sentiments.

By People's Daily Online



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http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/6559814.pdf