Recently, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published a report revealing that China is moving towards a labor shortage, and 2009 will be the turning point from surplus to shortage. For instance, in confirmation of this conclusion, the "labor shortage" in the Pearl River Delta and southeast of Fujian continues to spread. The surplus or shortage of labor is a basic national issue. Will China's labor come up short?
"There is still a surplus of labor," said You Jun, director of the National Institute for Social Insurance under the Ministry of Labor and Social Security (NISI). He said that from a long-term perspective, the baby boom in 1960s and 1970s produced a larger proportion of the working age population, which remains to be more than 65 percent of the total population, currently and in the next twenty years. During the five years of the "11th Five-Year Plan," the annual, new urban and rural labor force will reach 20 million. Since a proportion of the labor force has retired, the new annual urban labor force is bound to reach 10 million. In addition to the newly unemployed who are seeking employment, there are also 24 million people who are looking for employment each year. On the side of demand, according to the economic growth that maintains a rate of 8 to 9 percent, between 8 and 9 million jobs will be created each year. Coupled with the natural depletion of people, 12 million people can obtain employment. The gap in the annual supply and demand for labor is still around 12 million. "Particularly, the surplus in the rural labor force is still over 12 billion. So, we believe that in the future ahead, we will not experience a shortage in the labor force. The supply still exceeds the demand," added You Jun. Currently and in the near future, it is clear that there will not be a shortage of labor in China. Only structural contradictions in some regions and industries will become prominent. Many efforts are still needed to expand employment and increase the supply of jobs. At the same time, China needs to relieve structural contradictions through capable and competent human resources and the organized transfer of industries.
By People's Daily Online