Javier Solana, the European Union (EU)'s high representative for the common foreign and security policy, and Ali Larijani, the Iranian chief nuclear negotiator, had a new round of talks in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon last Saturday, or June 23. Again, no substantial outcome came out of the talks as people had anticipated. And their talks are scheduled to continue in the next three weeks.
In about four years since early 2003, Solana and Larijani have held several rounds of bilateral talks, but the baselines and principled stances of both sides are, nevertheless, have not been eased to the slightest. The attitude of the EU is very explicit and extremely definite or unequivocal. Namely, the EU demands that Iran suspend all uranium enrichment activities, and called on the country to accept inspections of the United Nations on its nuclear enrichment program. On this point, the EU and the United States have reached consensus. Fundamentally speaking, Western nations do not believe at all that Iran's nuclear activities are designed for the purpose of peace, whereas Iran claims its legitimate right for peaceful use of nuclear energy. So neither side is willing or ready to yield or give in and, consequently, no breakthrough whatsoever has been scored in their nuclear talks over the years.
The reason for keeping up recent talks is that each side has its own intentions. EU definitely does not want to impose any sanctions against Iran, particularly the all-round punitive measures in the petroleum, trade and financial spheres, as such measures could only bring losses to itself. Therefore, it can retain contacts with Iran by the means of keeping to sustained talks. In so doing, EU will first keep abreast of what Iran is really after, secondly retain its desire for settlement and, thirdly, keep subjecting Iran to pressures in an effort to win more time for a possible reshuffle of the Iranian government or any possible change of the government'attitude.
So far as Iran is concerned, a move to head for an all-round confrontation with the West does not comply with its strategic interest; it hopes first to conduct talks with EU to disintegrate the West, second to go on retaining contact with the West so as to reserve some leeway for itself and, thirdly to gain more time for its speed-up nuclear energy development. In the meanwhile, Iran can also use defense as a means of awaiting change or seeking maximal comprise from the Western world.
Furthermore, EU can neither provide Iran with whatever nuclear technology and security guarantees Iran now needs, nor Iran believes that EU could carry out what it had promised in this regard. In a certain sense, the nuclear talks of both sides have been shown only for the U.S to see. The EU would like to convince Iran of its diplomatic capability on the one hand and, on the other hand, to placate the U.S. Meanwhile, Iran can demonstrate to the United States its sincerity so as to avert possible military strikes by American servicemen and induce the U.S. to enter into talks with it. Of course, the United States can also retain opportunities of imposing tough, high pressures upon Iran with the availability of its contact with EU.
The present situation is that, due to a shortage of serious no-confidence in each other, it is quite likely for both sides to make misconceptions of the situation, to head for comprehensive sanctions and even to embark on a road of military confrontation. In this sense, EU today even has a stronger sense of urgency; it will seek the understanding and support from Russia and China, and impose still greater punitive measures upon Iran, while spurring the direct dialogue between the U.S. and Iran and offer Iran more "carrots", including giving due security consideration to Iran as well as to its status as a major power in the Middle East Region.
In view of the current situation, both sides are working hard to avoid the worst consequences that might occur. Nevertheless, there still exists a space for making mutual comprises or accommodation. So it has been foreseeable that such marathon-type race would still go on and on.
By People's Daily Online and its author is Zhang Jian, a noted research fellow with the European Affairs Office affiliated tor the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.