China's population growth in recent years has been characterized by a lower growth rate with peak number ahead of time and accelerated aging, according to a research report made by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
Experts estimate that China's population is likely to hit a peak between 2025 and 2030 earlier than expected. The peak population, however, will probably be about 1.45 billion in the future, not to top 1.6 billion.
When China's population reached 1.3 billion early this year, some predicteed that a peak would come in 2050 and reach about 1.6 billion, hitting an all time high.
The research report believes that China's population will not even reach 1.6 billion even if it is calculated according to different assumptions in line with the fifth national population census in 2000.
China's peak population will arrive ahead of time after China's population growth turns to feature low birth, mortality and natural growth rates, said Zhang Yi, an expert with CASS Institute of Population and Labor Economics. Zhang took part in the research of the population report.
Normally, the earlier the population peak arrives, the smaller it will be, according to the transition rule of developed countries in the world. China's peak population will likely come in 2025 and 2030 respectively according to relevant assumptions. It is expected the peak population will be between 1.387 and 1.45 billion, instead of the original estimation of 1.6 billion.
Experts warn that the accelerated aging, the large aged population and aging before becoming rich will bring more pension pressure on the society and families, which will be unfavorable for the per capita GDP increase. On the contrary, if the children dependency ratio and the aged dependency ratio are comparatively low, a labor population with less burdened will possibly boost the socio-economic development.
By People's Daily Online