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Home >> Opinion
UPDATED: 19:25, November 09, 2004
Will Bush reelection tilt scale toward Chinese mainland?
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Scholars on both sides of the Taiwan Strait believe the US policy toward China would continue to develop on its current track after President Bush's successful reelection. But eying the mainland's huge market and its role in the anti-terrorist and DPRK questions the US still needs the support of the Chinese mainland. Therefore President Bush's scale has gradually tilted toward Beijing. Observers of the cross-strait situation believe faced with the mutually distrusting situation across the strait the Bush administration would get involved more actively in the cross-strait affairs in order to "curb independence force and check military actions".

Tao Wentao, a well-known expert on international issues, said during an interview that the US is unlikely to adjust its policy toward China accordingly after President Bush's reelection and its policy toward China's Taiwan would also put emphasis on cross-strait talks while maintaining the so-called "double clearance", that is, "Taiwan independence" is not allowed and the Chinese mainland must not resort to force. Meanwhile emphasis is put on dialogue. Tao Wentao also said the Chinese mainland and the United States would have serious fights over arms sales to Taiwan.

Niu Jun: China-US cooperation would expand
According to the view of professor Niu Jun with the International Studies School of Beijing University President Bush would not adjust his China and cross-strait policy drastically after the reelection. He said since "Sep. 11" the US government had to adjust its security strategy and make anti-terrorism its strategic center. Against such a backdrop the US policy toward China has transformed a great deal. Basis for the China-US cooperation expands continuously. Mutual communication and understanding in the political field keep deepening. A new cooperation area has formed regarding security. And the China-US relations entered a relatively stable period. He believes the US would cautiously handle the cross-strait crisis so as not to trigger a China-US confrontation crisis.

"Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation.", the US Secretary of State Powell make the above remarks during his visit to Beijing just before the presidential election. It dropped a shocking bomb amid the cross-strait impasse. Experts analyzed that under the framework of election language the essence of Mr. Powell's remarks may actually represent the US view on the cross-strait question. A senior US official also warned that Taiwan should not take lightly Mr. Powell's extremely rare actions such as his recent reiteration of "not supporting Taiwan independence and Taiwan independence supporters".

Hu Guocheng: the US' Taiwan policy gets clearer
Hu Guocheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the China-US relations would progress smoothly and the new Bush administration would probably spend more efforts on promoting cross-strait dialogue.

Hu Guocheng believes the US wants to "promote dialogue" and the Chinese mainland has long made clear its bottom line regarding resumption of dialogue. As long as the Taiwan authorities refuse to accept the "one china" principle cross-strait dialogue is impossible. Therefore Chen Shui-bian must make concessions for dialogue to be possible. The Taiwan question has become the very core of the China-US relations. The US hopes for the stability of cross-strait situation. Pressed hard steadily by the Taiwan authorities the Bush administration has to make its Taiwan policy clearer.

Chu Jingtao: China to rely on itself in solving the Taiwan question
Chu Jingtao with the Taiwan History Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned during an interview against an optimistic view of the US' attitude simply because of Mr. Powell's remarks before the election about "Taiwan not being a sovereign state". He estimated that President Bush might take even bolder action regarding the Taiwan question after his reelection.

Chu Jingtao believes if history is anything it teaches that the US could not help the mainland solve the Taiwan question. China has to rely on itself. Regarding the US arms sales to Taiwan Chu Jingtao believes Taiwan's military strength is an important force for the US to check the peaceful rise of China. The US does not want to see it weakened. Therefore questions surrounding the US arms sales to Taiwan would grow in intensity in the near future.

By People's Daily Online

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