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Home >> China
UPDATED: 14:58, August 03, 2004
Zero growth possible, but after 1.6 bln
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The coming two decades will see China's aggregate population keep rising, at a net growth rate of about 10 million per year, and zero growth is expectable only after 16 billion, Hong Kong Wen Wei Po quoted Zhang Weiqing, director of China National Commission of Population and Family Planning on August 3.

Zhang predicts, at a total fertility rate (TFR) (the average number of babies born to women during their reproductive years) of 1.8, China will have 1.486 billion people in 2034 and a zero growth is likely then. If some complicated and changeable factors are taken into consideration, at a TFR of 2.0, the population will reach 1.575 billion in 2043. That is to say, there will be 300 million more people and zero growth can be realized only after China's population reaches 1.6 billion.

A series problems against population

Zhang added that China ranks the 104th in terms of Human Development Index at a low level in terms of human resources. In 2020, China's floating population will exceed 900 million, 300 million than the total of the labors in developed countries.

The system of public hygiene and health protection is very fragile. 80 percent of the health resources are concentrated in cities; there are 120 million hepatitis B virus carriers; 80 percent of the AIDS-infected are in rural areas. Lastly, there emerge a new needy group. Parents in families, which carried out family planning first, are aging. Particularly, the living of those parents with only one child or two daughters is inadequately guaranteed.

By People's Daily Online

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