Expert: Economic Factor, Positive for Improving DPRK-US Relations

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, August 27, 2003

Expert: Economic Factor, Positive for Improving DPRK-US Relations

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While most people consider the nuclear issue of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) as a political and diplomatic puzzle, economic factors should not be overlooked in easing tension and preventing conflict, an international situation expert said Tuesday.

Shen Jiru, a noted researcher and chief of the Division of International Strategies of the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said the mixed economic interests of the concerned nations could serve to check possible confrontation.

East Asia, even the West Pacific region, had witnessed the world's fastest economic growth over recent years, Shen said in a signed article released Tuesday.

The peaceful de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsular, which is at the center of Northeast Asia, was vital to the regional and the world's peace and development, he noted.

If the deadlock between the United States and the DPRK went out of control, the Republic of Korea (ROK), facing directly the DPRK, would face immediate threat, which would be a blow to its developed economy, Shen said.

In that sense, the ROK would resolutely seek a peaceful solution through dialogue, he said.

Japan, the world's second largest economic power, was based on overseas trade, Shen said.

The Japanese economy would suffer if the US-DPRK conflict broke out, which would dampen the cooperation network between Japan, the ROK, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Australia. Over 40 percent of Australia's exports were marketed in North Asia.

A peaceful settlement of the Korean nuclear issue was in the interests of Japan, Shen acknowledged.

Shen also said that the Russian economy was recovering but still far from the level before the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, Shen said.

The conflict would be detrimental to the economy and stability of Russia's Pacific region, and hamper its economic ties with China, ROK and Japan, he said.

The United States also hoped to settle the Korean nuclear issue through talks, at least before its presidential general election, Shen remarked.

The fiscal and military burden from the Iraq war and post-war reconstruction in Iraq, as well as the US market interests in East Asia and the stance of ROK, Japan, Russia and China would hold back the United States from using military force, Shen said.

Globalization pushed Russia, the United States, ROK and Japan, countries with different ideologies and regimes, toward a common goal and even affected the DPRK's choice, Shen said.

The DPRK-ROK summit meeting in 2000 improved to a great extent the relationship on the Korean Peninsular and there was a trend of relaxation in the ties between the DPRK, Japan and the United States, Shen added.

But the Korean nuclear issue, which erupted in October last year, suspended the process of relaxation, Shen recalled. The relationship between the DPRK, Japan and the United States, even the security situation in Northeast Asia, had suddenly became strained, threatening the economic cooperation and development of the region and of the DPRK as well.

In order to maintain regional peace, stability and promote economic growth in the region, forging a nuclear-free Korean Peninsular through negotiation and compromise was the common task of the six parties involved in the Beijing talks, Shen said.

Overall, economic factors could prevent the DPRK and the United States from sliding to conflict and a peaceful solution for the Korean nuclear issue was likely, Shen said.

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