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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, April 09, 2002

Asian Growth to Accelerate In 2002-2003: ADB Report

Asia is returning to a more sustainable pace of economic growth in 2002-2003, after a turbulent 1997-2001 period, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).


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Asia is returning to a more sustainable pace of economic growth in 2002-2003, after a turbulent 1997-2001 period, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The region's average gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to rise to 4.8 percent in 2002 and 5.8 percent in 2003 from 3.7 percent posted in 2001, according to the Asian Development Outlook 2002 (ADO) released Tuesday by the ADB.

"A gradual recovery in global trade and a moderate improvement in capital flows to the region should provide a stimulus to all subregions of developing Asia," said ADB Vice President Myoung-Ho Shin at a press conference in launching the Asian Development Outlook 2002 in Hong Kong.

A strengthening United States economy, emerging from a milder than predicted recession, is proving beneficial to the outlook forother economies worldwide, including the Euro area, Japan, and developing Asia, says ADO, an annual publication analyzing and forecasting economic trends in the Asian and Pacific region.

Domestic demand in many of ADB's developing member economies isresponding to macroeconomic stimulus and emerging as a source of growth. Falling risk spreads on Asian securities, and, in early 2002, strengthening equity markets reveal renewed investor interest in the region.

"The region will slowly return to a more balanced and sustainable pace of development after a turbulent 1997-2001 period," added Shin.

But the ADO notes that challenges still exist. One risk that could spark slower-than-expected growth is that the export demand recovery for Asian products could be sluggish.

A current account adjustment in the United States or an increase in trade costs because of security concerns could also reduce its appetite to import goods and thus dilute recovery in developing Asia by curtailing exports.

Moreover, disruptive events in the Middle East could lead to the rise of oil price.

The ADO forecasts that the Chinese mainland will continue to beone of Asia's best performing economies, with an estimated GDP growth at 7 percent in 2002 and 7.4 percent in 2003.

In Hong Kong, the GDP growth is expected to be 2.1 percent in 2002 and to reach 4.8 percent in 2003.




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