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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, March 29, 2002

Two Major Trends in Today's World: Commentary

In recent years, Chinese leaders, while expounding world development and the international situation, have repeatedly mentioned that there are two trends in the world today: one is that the trend of economic globalization is developing rapidly, the second is that the international pattern of multi-polarization is taking shape. These two theses, which accurately grasp the development trends and characteristics of the present international situation, serve as the basic judgement for us to understand and analyze the evolution of the world situation.


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In recent years, Chinese leaders, while expounding world development and the international situation, have repeatedly mentioned that there are two trends in the world today: one is that the trend of economic globalization is developing rapidly, the second is that the international pattern of multi-polarization is taking shape. These two theses, which accurately grasp the development trends and characteristics of the present international situation, serve as the basic judgement for us to understand and analyze the evolution of the world situation.

Part I


There exist many controversies and different understandings of economic globalization, a hot topic in today's world. In a broad sense, economic globalization is a fairly long historical process, following the emergence of a capitalist mode of production, there appeared worldwide economic and trade activities and capital colonial expansion, in a certain sense, a process of economic globalization had begun at that time. In the 90s of the 20th century, the development of science and technology and the evolution of the economic form had made the trend of economic globalization more conspicuous, this phenomenon emerged roughly in the same period with the conclusion of the Cold War. In other words, the integration and fermentation of multi-polarization of the world pattern proceeded almost simultaneously with the rapid expansion of economic globalization.

During the period of the Cold War, due to the existence of a polarization pattern, in a certain degree, there also existed two market systems in the world, which had largely hindered the exchanges of worldwide economic activities. Around the time of the conclusion of the Cold War, along with the market-oriented economic system reform and economic restructuring in some countries, a global market system was formed, the process of economic globalization also obtained certain structural conveniences in a wider area.

So-called economic globalization means that the economic activities of various countries are expanding globe-wide, it includes multi-faceted contents such as production, trade and financial activities. This process takes developed countries as the guide, transnational corporations as the main carriers and the formation of major world markets as the indication. The development of world economic globalization to this day has both promoted the effective allocation of global resources and brought about a series of problems including the further widening of the gap between the poor South and the rich North.

In recent years, the development of science and technology, particularly information technology, has been changing the method of economic activities, in international economic and trading activities, the flow of personnel, materials, funds and information, with the support of new technology, has become faster and more convenient, has immensely promoted the scale and efficiency of socialized mass production and realized the allocation of production factors worldwide.

In the phenomenon of economic globalization, two major characteristics are worth noticing. One is the trend of the integration of regional economy, such as the European Union (EU) which grew out of the European Communities, the North America Free Trade Zone, the brewing East Asian Free Trade Area, the South America and African Economic Communities-this reflects the important role played by geographical factors in the economy. The EU which recently realized a unified currency is worth noticing, in this region, super-national economic and political entity is taking shape and developing. The North-South economic integration of various types and at different levels organized by developed and developing countries has begun to appear. In Europe, a grand plan for a European economic area that encompasses all North and South European countries in the region and a Europe-Mediterranean Free Trade Zone are in the making; In America, a tentative plan has been put forward for an American Free Trade Zone involving more than 30 countries, including the United States; in the Asia-Pacific region, a plan has been worked out for an ASEAN-China Free Trade Zone, a Tumenjiang International Development Zone, an East Asian Economic Core Forum, a Yellow Sea-rim economic circle and North-East Asian economic circle. In the Indian Ocean region, an Indian Ocean-rim economic cooperative organization is under construction. It is estimated that in a not too long period of time, trans-regional and trans-continental regional cooperative organization will rise one after another.

The second major characteristic is the phenomenon of increasingly dynamic transnational corporations. In the past decades, transnational corporations have developed rapidly, their color of national states is weakening, an increasing number of them are conducting allocation of economic resources and structural readjustment globe-wide. Statistics show that in 2001, the number of global transnational corporations had totaled 63,000, with an annual sales volume exceeding US$14 trillion, almost controlling one half of global output, 60 percent of world trade, 70 percent of technology transfer and 90 percent of international direct investment. Take 2000 for example, transnational corporation-based global foreign direct investment reached US$1.1 trillion, two-thirds of which was used in transnational merger.

The current development of economic globalization is very uneven. Over the past two decades, global external investment grew by seven-fold, but 70 percent of which were conducted among developed countries. In the meantime, economic globalization has led to the widening of the gap between the poor South and the rich North, according to statistics released by the United Nations last year, in the past 30 years, the number of the least developed countries has increased to 49 from 25.; the world's absolute impoverished population has increased from 1 billion five years ago to 1.2 billion at present; the per-capita income gap between the industrialized countries and the 30 most impoverished nations stands at least 70 fold; the assets of the three richest persons in the world has topped the aggregate GNP of 60 poverty-stricken countries.

This being the case, the process of economic globalization has made the problem of global social justice stand out more clearly. The process of economic globalization has, within a certain scope, led to the widening gap between the North and the South and to the marginalization of certain countries and regions and has even caused the rebound of some non-superior industries in developed countries. It seems that the process of economic globalization must be guided by an humane idea and attention must be given to the evenness of its development and the question of fairness. Before the topic of "what kind of economic globalization", the task for establishing a just and reasonable new international economic order has become more urgent.

The tidal wave of regionalization arisen globe-wide and trans-regional economic integration have not only been changing the world's economic domain and the balance of national strengths, but also are, to some extent, reshaping international relations, which is objectively playing a promotional role in the formation of a multi-polarized world pattern.

Part II


During the period of the Cold War, the world pattern was characterized by the confrontation of the two poles of the United States and the Soviet Union. After 1990, due the radical change in the Soviet Union and the East European region and the break-up of the Soviet Union, one pole of the polar pattern collapsed, while the other pole remained. The international pattern after the Cold War developed on this basis and therefore unavoidably carried the characteristics of the "ruin of Cold War".

After the end of the two poles, the United States became the only existing superpower. Taking advantage of its rich comprehensive national strength and powerful might, it is pursuing its leading position in the world. It directed three regional wars after the Cold war and is displaying an ever-stronger unilateralist color in international affairs, creating the facade of a certain kind of a "mono-polar world". But from the perspective of development and essence, only multi-polarization is the orientation for the change in the world pattern.

A look at the development course of the world over the past decades, it can be seen that the development trend tends to be balanced multiple poles. The political and economic integration which takes the union of West European countries as the engine is being continually deepened, the EU has stealthily become one pole. Russia, which inherited the industrial foundation and military strength of the former Soviet Union, still retains its potential as a big power. In the Asian region, Japan's economic scale is one half that of the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and some other countries and regions have all experienced rapid economic growth and have thus become newly-emerging industrial economies, India has also stepped onto the path of rapid growth in the past years. China, after 50-odd years of endeavors, has set up a fairly complete industrial system, it has achieved fast economic growth over the past 20 years and more, with its own scale, the process of China's rejuvenation will produce importance influence on the world pattern.

From the perspective of the political, ideological and cultural surfaces, multi-polarization has been increasingly identified by various countries the world over. The developments in recent years indicate that unilateralism practiced in international affairs is unpopular, not only the developing countries are displeased with it, but the wave of opposition has also been rising among the developed countries. When cultural exchanges among various countries of the world are becoming increasingly frequent, more conscious efforts have been made to develop their own national cultures, human civilization will present a more colorful form. In short, the diversity of cultural and social trends of thought also gives great impetus to the trend of multi-polarization.

In a certain sense, recognition of multi-polarization by various countries reflects a kind of pursuit of the democratization of international relations. In the age of economic globalization, a kind of deepening inter-dependence relationship has been developed among countries, the principle of equality between countries as laid down in the Charter of the United Nations has gone deeper into people's hearts, more and more countries have established such self-consciousness: all countries, big or small, strong or weak, poor or rich, are equal members of the international community. Democratization of international relationship will become the common wish for shaping a world new order.

In recent years, the United Nations has been playing an increasingly prominent role in handling and solving various international problems. Within the United Nations, more expressions have been given to the voice and will of the majority of countries, circumstances featuring big-power control have been somewhat reduced. Although the United States, as the sole superpower, has an extremely strong intention of being the leading country, its actions have more and more obviously been contained and restrained by various factors and forces. It should be said that the above-mentioned phenomena are manifestations of the trend of multi-polarization.

Another manifestation of multi-polarization is the unprecedented dynamics of various forms of multilateral diplomacy and international activities. Along with the deepening of economic globalization, efforts for seeking the establishment of a new international political and economic order are developing from bilateral to multilateral, regional and global and at various levels and to various directions. Interactions, consultations and cooperation between countries, international organizations, regional organizations and non-governmental organizations have obviously increased and strengthened in recent years, the areas they involve are expanding without let-up.

Multi-polarization is both a kind of changed direction of the international pattern, and a fairly long tortuous historical course, its developing form is in the process of evolution, waiting for further observation.



By People's Daily Online


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