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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, November 29, 2001

Futurist Toffler Says China Has Seen "Astonishing Changes"

Renowned American author and futurist Alvin Toffler said before leaving Beijing Wednesday that China has experienced "astonishing changes."

Toffler, author of "The Third Wave", said,"China is a different world, even from a few years ago." In a number of his books and articles, Toffler predicted China would rise as a global power and bring great changes to the world.


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The Third Wave

Toffler: China has experienced "astonishing changes"

Renowned American author and futurist Alvin Toffler said before leaving Beijing Wednesday that China has experienced "astonishing changes."

  • "The Third Wave"


  • Toffler, author of "The Third Wave," said,"China is a different world, even from a few years ago."

    "The Third Wave" was translated into Chinese in the 1980s and it immediately became a bestseller. All of his works are bestsellers in China and many of his phrases have been widely used in China's social, economical and cultural lives.

  • Toffler: China would rise as a global power


  • Toffler said he admired Chinese leadership, as "they have carefully introduced significant changes while maintaining stability."

    In a number of his books and articles, Toffler predicted China would rise as a global power and bring great changes to the world.

    Toffler: China has three different spheres of society

  • The "first wave"


  • Toffler said China has three different spheres of society. Some700 million to 900 million people, mainly peasants, still live in the "first wave" world. They need to benefit from development, and are at the highest risk of being hurt by China's WTO entry.

  • The "second wave"


  • The "second wave" consists of the 250 million to 300 million Chinese who belong to the urban industrial world of mass manufacturing.

  • The "third wave"


  • Only a small population of 10 million are information age people, or the knowledge-based "third wave" group.

    How to manage the three waves in China

    Toffler said the disparities between the three are difficult for a government to manage.

  • "Wave-ratio" in China will change


  • He said the "wave-ratio" in China will change in the next 10 years or more, and China will make historic changes within one generation.

  • Use third wave technologies to help the first wave people


  • "The most important thing for China is how to allocate the limited resources," he noted. "Can we use the tools we have in the second or third wave to help people in the first wave?"

    He said if China chooses the traditional path of shifting the first wave people to the second wave, millions of peasants in rural areas will rush into cities, and it would be disastrous.

    He said China might use third wave technologies such as geneticcrops and broadband to help improve the well-being of the first wave people.

    He said it is possible to bridge certain technology gaps, but not political and cultural ones. Internet technologies such as broadband can serve as new tools for educational as well as commercial purposes.

    Toffler has visited China eight times. His current trip was at the invitation of China Netcom to attend a conference on China's broadband sector.

    Toffler's books

  • "Future Shock."


  • Besides "The Third Wave," Toffler is also author of international bestseller "Future Shock."

    The first two books have been regarded as masterpieces of futurism. Since their publications in the 1980s, they have been translated into over 30 languages and sold millions of copies.

  • Influence


  • It is said his books have influenced and inspired different generations, including politicians, scientists and business people.



    Biography: Alvin Toffler, Ph.D.
    Alvin Toffler, Ph.D., is one of the world's preeminent futurists. As the co-author of War and Anti-War, Dr. Toffler sketches the emerging economy of the 21st century, presenting a new theory of war and revealing how changes in today's military parallel almost precisely the changes now taking place in business. More

    Alvin Toffler and The Third Wave
    In the annals of contemporary change literature, Alvin Toffler is the 600-pound gorilla. He and his wife and collaborator Heidi Toffler have written a baker's dozen of books that have all been best-sellers, starting way, way back in 1970 with Future Shock. The family tree of thousands of books about the future, and about how to cope with it, all lead to the leafy canopy where he makes his roost. More

    Wave theory
    The central premise of Toffler's talk was that human history, while it is complex and contradictory, can be seen to fit patterns. The pattern he has been seeing in his career takes the shape of three great advances or waves. The first wave of transformation began when some prescient person about 10,000 years ago, probably a woman, planted a seed and nurtured its growth. The age of agriculture began, and its significance was that people moved away from nomadic wandering and hunting and began to cluster into villages and develop culture. More

    Future Shock
    Examines the effects of rapid industrial and technological changes upon the individual, the family, and society. More



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