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Growth set to rise following second quarter low: BOC (2)

By WANG XIAOTIAN  (China Daily)

08:12, September 25, 2012

"Our China leading indicator suggests further weakness in September, but we expect macro data to surprise on the upside in the fourth quarter, supported by a pickup in infrastructure and housing investment," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc.

Nomura's China leading index continued to drop in August, as eight of the nine components weakened.

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, a key indicator of manufacturing activity, rose slightly to 47.8 in September from its August reading of 47.6, but still fell below the expansion line of 50.

Chang Jian, a China economist with Barclays Bank, said the reading supports the forecast that real GDP growth is likely to slow to 7.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter.

But some sub-indices suggested slowdown in demand appears to be stabilizing on the back of various, albeit modest, supportive domestic measures and possibly stabilizing, but still weak, external demand, which would contribute to industrial restocking from 2013, Chang said.

Despite some pickup in quarter-on-quarter momentum, year-on-year GDP growth is likely to slow further before stabilizing at 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter and picking up to 7.8 percent in the second half of next year, she said.

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